MMA Blog

UFC 77 Tipsters panel

October 18th, 2007

Welcome again to the Fantasy MMA Betting League tipsters panel!

The Odds
At the time of writing, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.

+180 Rich Franklin v Anderson Silva -220
+150 Tim Sylvia v Brandon Vera -180
+190 Jason MacDonald v Yushin Okami -240
+110 Alan Belcher v Kalib Starnes -140
+275 Eric Schafer v Stephan Bonnar -345
+280 Matt Grice v Jason Black -350
+140 Alvin Robinson v Jorge Gurgel -170
+265 Forrest Petz v Josh Burkman -325
-210 Demian Maia v Ryan Jensen +170

The Panel
Mike (me) - of mmagame.com.
Doug - proprietor of zewkey.com - the mma betting site.
TheGarv - MMA prophet and funny man of YouTube fame.
Boondock - Awesome highlights maker and high flying tipster in our betting league.
TJ DeSantis - of Sherdog Radio fame.

TheGarv’s picks
UFC 77 promises to be explosive, and there are two fights that are a lock if you want to bet. The first lock is Vera over Sylvia. This is a fight you need to bet the farm on. Bet the farm, bet your house. Hell even bet your wife, because you can’t lose. Vera truly is the second coming of Fedor and he’s going to show the world on October 20th. I expect him to chop down Tim with leg kicks and overhand rights. Vera by KO round 2.

The second lock is Anderson Silva over Rich Franklin. I love Rich, he is one of my favorite fighters but he just doesn’t match up well with the Spider. After the brutal ownage in their first fight, I don’t see any way possible for Rich to win this. I think the second fight is going to look similar to the first, with Anderson dominating on the feet, and Rich unable to get it to the ground. I think Rich will last into the second or third round before being KO’d.

Those are TheGARV’s picks.

Boondock’s picks
UFC 77 is upon us and I have to admit that this is one of the harder cards when it comes to making my picks. Vera vs. Sylvia: I’d have to say this fight is a virtual crap shoot as to who’ll win… and as we all know, when it comes to crap shooting, never doubt Sylvia. However, I’m not so sure this time and neither fighter steps into the octagon with any momentum. Vera has been out of the cage for quite a while as has Sylvia after recovering from a back injury (that I’m sure was a result of not having the belt strap around to support him through his daily routine). So Ring rust vs. Back injury? I’ll take Vera but I don’t think it’ll be the walk in the park some are telling us. And Vera’s not the second coming of Fedor… only Fedor is good enough to be the second coming of himself.

Last time we saw Franklin vs. Silva we were shocked to see Rich going down faster than Tito’s girlfriend. And while I see Silva winning this fight I don’t see another Tyler Durden style beat down like we saw last time. What made that fight the train wreck that it turned into was Silva’s skill and an absolutely horrible game plan by Franklin’s corner… unless blocking Thai knees with your ribs and nose is some sort of Krav Maga defense gone wrong. All the same, I still think Silva wins this but I would bet someone else’s life (not mine) that Rich takes it to the ground to use his size to try and gNp a victory. He could get one. Then again, Rich could very well be getting another kneecap instead of a nightcap to help him sleep on fight night.
And finally the lock of the night: Okami.

Long Live MMA!
Boondock

TJ’s Picks
UFC 77 isn’t the strongest card of the year. Nevertheless, a few fights definately have the ingredients to make for some wars.

In the main event Rich Franklin looks to get his title back against current champion Anderson Silva. The first time these guys met Franklin was over-whelmed. The Ohio based fighter walked in to the clinch thinking he would find success there. Instead of success he found hard knees to the face.

For Rich to win he needs to fight smart. Franklin is a smart fighter and I expect him to look to trade at first and then get on the inside with underhooks. “Ace” needs to stay away from the knees and kicks of Silva. If he can do this I think that he can wear Anderson down and get the fight to the floor.

Unfortunatly for Franklin, Silva doesn’t allow that. Anderson will utilize the clinch again. Silva will land shots to the body and this will hurt Rich in the later rounds. I expect Anderson to hurt Rich through out the first couple of rounds. In the third Rich will score a takedown, get stood up, and Silva will stop Franklin again via TKO.

Sylvia Vera is a pickem in my opinion. Vera will look to land low kicks and use his speed. If he is successful I expect him to win a decision. One hard punch from Sylvia could end this fight. But I think Vera is smart enough and wins a decision.

UPSET PICK: Matthew Grice over Jason Black.

Black looked zapped in his fight with Thiago Tavares. If Black is anything like that Saturday night look for Grice to take this fight. At +240 you’re silly not to throw at least 50 on this fight

Mike’s picks
For me, the big pick of UFC77 is Brandon Vera. Now first off, let me say this is a pick that does leave me doubting myself somewhat. My justification is basically that he’s a lot more skilled than big Tim but then so (supposedly) was Andre Arlovski. Still, I am putting my doubts aside and going for the Truth, because after a pretty uninspiring debut against Fabiano Scherner, I have been very impressed. He’s polished off two of Sylvia’s former opponents (Mir and Silva) in 4 minutes combined and in general, I think he’s a superior fighter. REMEMBER, you don’t need to KO or sub someone to win a fight - you just need to beat them. Vera decision : leg kicks.

Secondly I’m going for Okami over McDonald. He’s just bigger and better with more power. I can’t see McDonald winning by sub (his only chance) and I can see Okami winning by either sub, decision or KO.

Silva over Franklin. I really don’t know how Franklin could win the fight. He’s just outmatched in every area. Sorry Rich but I don’t see any way you win and considering the way the last fight went, I can’t believe Silva is only -220.

Doug’s picks
I think UFC 77 is the best event for betting I have seen in a long time. If you are a true MMA fan, then the 4 main fights are all intriguing matchups.

I have strong opinions on three of the four, the exception being Starnes vs Belcher. Although I favor Starnes, both guys are talented but unproven in my eyes. So, I will take a pass on this one and invest in the other three.

Let’s start with the Championship fight. Here’s the deal. If you think Rich Franklin is the same fighter he was before the first fight (just as good now as he was then,) you have to bet him. 2-1 is a dream. I, however, believe that the beating Silva gave him that night ended the career of the championship level Rich Franklin. Silva has moved forward in his development as a complete fighter, while Franklin has fought to regain his confidence. You can make a case that Franklin is bigger and will take him down etc… but I see it as Silva is at a completely different level than Franklin, physically and mentally. I’m taking Spider.

Everyone hates Tim Sylvia, but I don’t get it. Sylvia is one of the most resilient fighters we have ever seen, he uses his strengths better than any fighter I can think of, and he’s a hard working fool. No way Vera should be favored over big Timmy. Even if you buy into all the Vera hype, that should make him about even up with the former champion-at best! Tim’s loss to Couture looks a lot better now that Randy tore through Gonzaga. Fighting styles will matter in this one. Expect Vera to have a similar plan that Couture used to defeat Sylvia, except more knees in close. Sylvia will be ready for it, and you can bet your last tater that he won’t fall into that trap again. Look for Sylvia to use his size effectively as he controls the pace. Sylvia will frustrate Vera and take him off his game. Easy win for Sylvia. Big Bet!!!

Okami is physically superior to Jason MacDonald. MacDonald lacks the crisp, effective punching that he will need to keep the Japanese mauler off him. The combination of a physically stronger fighter facing a submission fighter is a profit machine. Okami will bull his way to MacDonald’s chest whenever he feels like it, where he can take him down and gnp as long as he wants. Some say that Okami is a slow starter, but here’s the secret…Okami knows he’s strong enough to escape submission attempts once the fighter start getting sweaty. He keeps himself out of trouble until everyone’s good a warm, then goes to work. Bet Okami with confidence.

Best Bet: Tim Sylvia
Good Bets: Okami and Silva

Records (Starting balance $200)
TheGarv: 0-0 (0%) Balance $200 - making his debut
Mike: 42-18 (80%) Balance $390.52, Total Amount Bet $3690
Boondock: 32-43 (44%) Balance $1977.75, Total Amount Bet $3911
Doug: 19-13 (59%) Balance $233.85, Total Amount Bet $436
TJ DeSantis: 9-8 (53%) Balance $632, Total Amount Bet $1990
(see more stats in game)

UFC 77 Betting Summary for the Fantasy Betting League
Note: These bets don’t necessarily correspond to who the tipsters have picked in their summaries above.

TheGarv: $50 Silva, $50 Vera
Mike: $200 Silva, $80 Vera, $50 Okami
Boondock: $500 Okami, $50 Franklin, $25 Belcher, $150 Sylvia
Doug: $100 Sylvia, $50 Okami, $50 Silva
TJ DeSantis: $100 Sylvia, $100 MacDonald, $100 Grice

With thanks….
Thanks to the tipsters for taking part - please show them some love and visit their respective ventures.

Doug - visit zewkey.com for betting news.
TheGarv - check him out on YouTube .
Boondock - visit his myspace page
TJ DeSantis - check out the Sherdog Radio network Monday through Friday.

Entry Filed under: UFC Predictions, MMA Betting News